CONFESSIONS OF A DANGEROUS MIND

[lakerfan]

WSEX opened at 6M and I took the over, but now it is at 6.5M. If this was a sports line I would think it was a trap line, but this is movies and WSEX lines usually aren't that sharp. However, the money is now coming in on the under for this film. WSEX money has been pretty sharp of late which is the only thing keeping me off of putting more down on the over.

I put the minimum for this film right at 6.5M. There is no doubt that this films is following a very strange release pattern and isn't going to do very well. But I am seeing anywhere from 6.5 to 8.5 for it.

Not going to post a selection on this yet, but might tomorrow.

 

[AC]

things to favor the over:

--huge huge tv buy. they have been pushing this on tv for awhile. esp. pushing drew barrymore, julia roberts, clooney. that is a **** of a lot of starpower. tv buy always equals first weekend box office, no matter how bad the movie is. I suspect that they know they have a bomb and are doing the huge tv buy to simply guarantee their foreign output deals, but they may actually believe in the movie. you never know with them. they may also be covering their bets with clooney, roberts etc. by saying, "the market wasn't there, we supported it as much as we could." this won't be found out until monday when the tv buy stops and the ads get pulled from the newspapers if it tanks over the weekend.

--miramax always inflates their weekend numbers. sometimes they get caught, sometimes they don't. If the number is that low, they may not care.


things to favor the under

--chicago is going wider on friday and adding 700+ screens. miramax is hoping for a big splash here. chicago has been kicking major ass in just 30 theaters. so they will probably concentrate on puffing those numbers and might ignore confessions.

--confessions has been playing LA/NY in 5 theaters for 3 weeks. No one cares. i think it did 19 K per screen over the weekend. hot movies wlll do triple that on 5 screens. I have the movie on DVD and haven't even bothered watching it. In fact, I don't think I will ever watch it. The reviews are going to be uniformly bad, which will help keep out the 24-54 age group.

this one is really going to depend on the kids. if they decide to come out and see it, it will hit 10 million. if not, it should stay under. most teens don't know who chuck barris is, so that will help. also, I noticed over Xmas that most of the theather went "huh?" whenever the trailer played.

still this isn't a bet with positive EV, in my opinion, simply because of the tv buy.

good luck, and I hope it goes under.

AC

 

[Royler]

Hmmm...

Well, the movie isn't a disaster. It's got a "Fresh" rating over at rottentomatoes.com, with most of the critics finding it enjoyable.

I've gotta say, though, that Sam Rockwell is the most unappealing leading man I've seen in a long time. (Not that I spend hours looking for appealing leading men, but you get my point...)

OLY has this at under/over 6.5 mil as well, with the Under seeing more action. I find this quite bizarre. That would mean an unmitigated bomb for all involved.

The over at either 6 or 6.5 looks fine to me. Obviously I'd go with the over 6.5 for the "+" action at OLY.

 

[AC]

fyi: kenneth turan at latimes panned it/elvis mitchell at ny times gave it a mixed/negative.

AC

 

[AC]

if it is in 2200 screens (my prediction, tracking is showing 2000+) on friday, it only has to do 3000 per screen to hit 6.5 million.

a guy thing did just over 3100 per screen in 2500 theaters over the weekend. smaller tv buy than confessions. therefore, I am going to go out on a limb and say that it will do over 6.5. barely.

therefore this is a no bet situation, as far as I am concerned.

AC

 

[lakerfan]

AC - My information is that Chicago is adding around 225 more screen to get to 775, not adding 775 screens. They were going to go failry wide this weekend with it, but they have decided to go slower and keep building with all the award buzz it is getting.

That leaves Miramax with a bunch of theaters they were going to put Chicago into and they are putting COADM in as many as they can.

No movie with COADM buzz and LA/NY theater results would jump from 5 theaters to 2000 normally.

With that said, it is tough for a film like this to not do 3000 per screen. Superbowl is going to hurt, Clooney and Roberts are going to help. I think 3000 psa is do-able.

 

[SonofaGun]

lakerfan,
Do you like the over at 6.5?

 

[lakerfan]

Not anymore, just found out it is only going into around 1650.

I bought back most of my bets on this. If you haven't bet, don't. If you can get the over 9M on Darkness Falls consider it for a small play.

 

[Royler]

"Confessions" is now a pick 'em at over/under 6 mil at WSEX. This is too muddled for me...I'd agree to stay away, though 6 is a paltry number even for 1600 theaters. This could indeed bomb like Clooney's "Solaris," but even that made a little over 6 its first weekend. More theaters, though, I suspect.

I'm eyeing the Over 10 mil on "Darkness Falls" for +180 at OLY. "Black Hawk Down" made a solid 13 mil last Super Bowl weekend, and it had been in release for over a month. Question is: will the audience for the game and for a horror flick overlap? DF seems like a solid date flick for the teenage crowd, so it should do crisp business on Friday and Saturday, especially in close to 3,000 theaters.

I'm very tempted.

 

[SonofaGun]

Confessions's actual theatre count is 1769. At a pk em, I'm going to take my chances at hit it for above 6m for a small amount.

I agree with your over for DF.

Gl gentlemen

 

[SonofaGun]

Confessions now back up to -140 for the over.

Took over 9m for DF for +110 at WSEX.

 

[AC]

lakerfan: thanks for clarifying my info. not in the office all week and don't have normal access to my info.

at 1600-1700 screens it is a total toss up. stay away.

AC

 

[Royler]

Some info for the last-minute bettors...

Miramax is attaching "Chicago" to several prints of of "COADM" in an effort to boost the grosses of the latter film. This really should eek past 6 mil for that reason alone, but because the Super Bowl is Sunday, I'm staying away.

 

[SonofaGun]

Apparently someone really liked the over last night as it was up to -180 for the over at 6million. It closed at 6.5 million. I was really tempted to buy back my wager when it was +140 for the below at 6m, but i decided to stick to my over.

 

[AC]

12:30 in LA. I have no idea what is going to happen with this movie. I know this: they are assaulting eyeballs everywhere. you can't go anywhere online or on tv or on the street (in LA) and not be aware of this movie.

it is undboutedtly a huge dog. the buzz and campaign reminds of the costner/russell picture a few years ago--3000 Miles to Graceland. the director of that picture and his agent pitched me that movie in 1998. i will never forget it. because at the end of the pitch I thought to myself--they can't be serious. this is the biggest piece of shit ever. but the director wanted to get it done and he did.

Charlie Kaufman's script for CONFESSIONS had been around for awhile. It was "brilliant" blah blah blah and whatever else you want to say. A lot of people were supposed to direct it. the financing fell throught at least twice that I knew of; once very publicly. for awhile, that script was the "best unproduced script in town."

personally, I hated it. i read it and didn't get it. other people saw something else in it. i guess i'm just a square when it comes to movies. geroge clooney decided he wanted to make a movie and he did. the studio saw a way to make a profit up front and they did--the only people that will lose money on this picture will be the foreign territorries.

when i read about adaptation, i was pissed of because I thought Kaufman was pulling a fast one. he was, and it turned out to be a brilliant movie. I was wrong and I gladly admit it.


this one is different. It could make as much as 10 million this weekend. but the drop next weekend will be bad news. I haven't watched the movie yet, but I can smell it as I go to bed.


AC

 

[lakerfan]

Interesting post AC - Everything I am hearing from yesterday indicates this film is doing pretty well in terms of crowd size, but audience reactions are mixed to negative (with a lot of indie film people having a slight positive reaction). But even with that reaction it is much better than I though.

With the Chicago sneak previews this film should go OVER pretty easily.

I must admit that I have never seen so many twists in one weekend (three different theater count estimates, and then this whole Chicago angle). Miramax is throwing every curve ball in the book with this film.

 

[Royler]

Hmmm...looks like Confessions did about 1.8 mil on Friday. It's going to be close. No idea how much the Super Bowl will affect Sunday's numbers. It's going to hover right around 6 mil for the weekend.

Darkfess Falls really busted out with almost 5 mil...should clear ten easily.

Once the snowstorms dissipate and we get the variables out of the way (Super Bowl, holidays, etc.), I may start playing the BO again. Almost took Darkness. The game worried me.

 

[AC]

i think the chicago sneaks will count in the chicago numbers. don't be surprised if Miramax underreports confessions and overreports Chicago in this case. confessions will not get to 6 million. only did 1060 per screen on a friday night. sunday will be worse, and tonight will only be marginally be better.

this dead cat ain't gonna bounce. I'm sure miramax has already pulled the newspaper ads for monday and shifted the tv buy.

AC

 

[Royler]

I'm not so sure, AC...estimates now peg Confessions at 6 mil for the weekend. It's done 5.2 mil through now. It only needs 800k to clear the hurdle.

Darkness will wind up with around 12.5 mil. Both these props look to be winners, unless Confessions takes a real dump today. I'm glad I didn't take this. Too much of a nail-biter.

 

[AC]

royler: i'll be very surprised if that number sticks at 6. feels more like 5.89 or lower. just basing this on the dismal friday numbers which I know are real because they come from an independent source. the estimates from today come from the studio itself. I don't think there number is right. it is either 100 K above or, more likely, at least 200 K below. we'll see on tuesday.



AC